Mortgage demand jumped 29% last week as rates briefly dropped below 6%.

Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds.

Government intervention in housing markets creates artificial demand spikes that disappear when support ends.

Your business needs to understand that policy-driven rate drops generate temporary activity bursts, not sustained market recovery. When refinance applications surge 40% after presidential announcements, the demand reflects subsidy expectations, not fundamental improvement.

Rates fell from 6.25% to 6.18%, the lowest since September 2024. Refinancing jumped 128% year over year. Home sales in December rose at the fastest pace in three years. All driven by $200 billion in government mortgage bond purchases.

-) Mortgage demand up 29%
-) Refinances up 40%, 128% year over year
-) Rates briefly below 6%

The spike follows direct government market intervention. When Fannie and Freddie stop buying $200 billion in bonds, rates revert and demand crashes. The activity is borrowed from future periods, not new.

Separate policy-driven demand from organic market conditions when planning. Recognize temporary subsidies create pulls forward that depress future activity. Build models assuming support ends rather than continues indefinitely.

Are you planning for sustained low rates or a brief window before government support expires?